Challenges to the Belt and Road Initiative in Asia: An Examination of Canceled Projects

What are the challenges facing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Asia? Since the BRI’s unveiling in 2013, the academic literature has examined the potential drawbacks to the world’s largest infrastructure project from the lens of offensive realism or constructivism, identifying geopolitical, economic, and environmental risks for host countries. However, the existing research has yet to empirically examine BRI project cancellations in Asia and how they differ from canceled BRI projects in other parts of the world. To address this gap, I conducted a search of local, regional, and international media outlets to collect data on BRI project cancellations, and I compiled an original database of 128 global cases. An analysis of the data reveals that a plurality—about 40 percent—of BRI cancellations occur in Asian countries, and that the host country—not China—initiated over 80 percent of these cancellations. The canceled BRI projects ranged from railways to dams and power plants, but coal plants comprise a plurality of canceled BRI projects. My findings show that environmental issues—particularly efforts to shift toward sustainable energy, concerns over the potential destruction of local biodiversity, and concerns over the environmental health impact on local populations—are a leading cause driving the cancellation of BRI projects in Asia. This paper will shed light on the primary challenges facing the largest proposed infrastructure project in history, particularly as executed in Asian countries.