1 - The Impact of Education and Costs on Birth Rates in East Asia: A Comparative Study of China, Japan, and South Korea

Presentation Abstract
The East Asian region, particularly China, Japan, and South Korea, is currently grappling with a growing and concerning issue of declining birth rates. Despite China discontinuing its One-Child Policy in 2016, the expected increase in birth rates did not occur. During the COVID-19 pandemic, birth rates in these countries reached historic lows. Previous studies primarily attribute the phenomenon of declining birth rates to the rising educational levels of women, which has led to increased female workforce participation and higher wages, thereby shortening the reproductive window and increasing the cost of raising children. However, existing studies have not fully explored the influence of the educational backgrounds of both spouses on decisions regarding childbirth, along with the mediating role of educational expenses in this context.
This study employs panel data from China, Japan, and South Korea and using a discrete-time Logit model to delve into the relationship between the educational levels of couples and the timing and number of children. Furthermore, it analyzes the mediating effect of educational expenses in this relationship. Our research findings indicate that the educational levels of both partners and the cost of education significantly impact the timing and quantity of children, with notable variations among the three countries. This study not only offers fresh insights into the issue of declining birth rates in East Asia but also provides valuable insights for policy formulation.