4 - Transformation of the City in the 'New Normal' Era: An Analysis of Population Change Patterns in Thai Provincial Areas Pre and Post-COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about significant changes in city status by increasing mortality rates and reshaping migration patterns. This study investigates the status of provincial cities in Thailand by analysing the population change patterns using data from the Thai census from 2016 to 2022. The study reveals statistically significant differences in population change rates between the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods. While the average population change rate during the pre-COVID-19 period was -0.510, it declined to -1.592 in the post-COVID-19 period. Out of the 76 provincial cities, 66 were categorised as shrinking cities due to population decreases from 2016 to 2022. Over half of the provincial cities experienced continuous population decline for six years. When comparing the population change rates before and after COVID-19, the number of shrinking cities rose from 55 to 72. Eighteen cities shifted from growth to decline. At the same time, 54 provincial cities are still shrinking cities as they were in the pre-COVID-19 period, with a higher decline rate than before COVID-19, except for two provincial cities. Remarkably, none of the provincial cities experienced annual population growth, as all experienced population decline at least once after COVID-19. In summary, the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a turning point, with nearly all provincial cities in Thailand undergoing a transformation into shrinking cities. This underscores the urgent need for the implementation of appropriate policies to support these cities in the New Normal Era, where "shrinking cities" are becoming a predominant feature within the Thai urban landscape.