1 - Urban Shrinkage in Pacific Asia: Overview and Research Agenda

Urban shrinkage in Pacific Asia has drawn uneven attention from both scholars and policy makers though this is now changing in a few countries and regions. Even amongst the countries with the most acute issues, the debate about policies is still nascent. This paper presents an overview of the key drivers of urban shrinkage in Pacific Asia, a comparison of the known patterns and the state of policy responses. Whereas low fertility rates, ageing population and economic restructuring are some of the key factors identified in parts of Pacific Asia, these are not necessary as well known in other parts nor necessarily the most important. Little is known about the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on urban shrinkage in Pacific Asia. Utilizing available data, this paper identifies the countries already experiencing and those likely to experience urban shrinkage within the next two or three decades. Although the literature on urban shrinkage in China, Japan, and S. Korea is relatively plentiful, there are cases, such as Taiwan and Thailand, where scholarly attention is still comparatively sparse even though the phenomenon is quite evident.

Comparative studies of urban shrinkage within Pacific Asia is a major gap in the literature. This paper concludes with suggestions of themes for comparative studies with the aim of stimulating discussions. The hope is that such discussions will generate in-depth comparative studies and identify lessons for those countries that are soon to be faced with urban shrinkage.